Resolve Research
nba projections

resolve nba

stat projections from our proprietary model. numbers refresh when the model is updated. playoff projections refresh daily during the playoffs.

fantasy basketball tool
sections
advanced resolve metrics players playoffs power ratings + odds prospect rankings teams

how the projections have held up
85%
of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly
29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus
RPS 0.171
World Cup ranked-probability score
tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)
54%
hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls
beat the closing market

release notes

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

methodology writeups

Every model change has to beat the previous version out-of-sample — anything that looks great in training but doesn't carry forward gets cut. What you see is what survived: small honest improvements, not flashy in-sample wins.

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.