nba projections
resolve nba
stat projections from our proprietary model. numbers refresh when the model is updated. playoff projections refresh daily during the playoffs.
sections
advanced resolve metrics
players
playoffs
power ratings + odds
prospect rankings
teams
how the projections have held up
85%
of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly
RPS 0.171
World Cup ranked-probability score
54%
hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
Every model change has to beat the previous version out-of-sample — anything that looks great in training but doesn't carry forward gets cut. What you see is what survived: small honest improvements, not flashy in-sample wins.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.