NBA Prospect Rankings
Who we think will have the best career.
2026 How the Draft Should Go
our 10-pick mockEditorial top-10 — talent ordering with a layer of fit and what we'd advise a team to do at each pick. Mostly model-aligned; a couple of judgment calls baked in.
- Cameron Boozer P(star) 61% · model #2 · the sure-shot
- Christian Anderson P(star) 58% · model #3
- AJ Dybantsa P(star) 45% · model #14 · ceiling pick
- Keaton Wagler P(star) 65% · model #1 · âš ADV_WARNING — discount the headline
- Jeremy Fears Jr. P(star) 57% · model #4
- Brayden Burries P(star) 53% · model #8
- Darius Acuff Jr. P(star) 51% · model #10
- Koa Peat P(star) 45% · model #19
- Kingston Flemings P(star) 44% · model #20
- Labaron Philon Jr. P(star) 57% · model #5
Our Top 20 — Career Projections
v4 ensemble · sorted by expected NBA seasonsP(class) columns sum to 1 across the five tier outcomes — calibrated probabilities, not arg-max chips. A high P(star) with low P(bust) is the cleanest signal.
| # | Prospect | Expected Seasons | Star % | Starter % | Rotation % | Role % | Bust % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keaton Wagler âš | 6.32 | 65% | 16% | 6% | 9% | 4% |
| 2 | Cameron Boozer | 6.14 | 61% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 3% |
| 3 | Christian Anderson | 5.99 | 58% | 19% | 8% | 11% | 4% |
| 4 | Jeremy Fears Jr. | 5.97 | 57% | 21% | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| 5 | Labaron Philon Jr. | 5.96 | 57% | 19% | 8% | 13% | 3% |
| 6 | Emanuel Sharp | 5.80 | 52% | 22% | 11% | 10% | 5% |
| 7 | John Blackwell | 5.76 | 57% | 13% | 8% | 16% | 5% |
| 8 | Brayden Burries | 5.72 | 53% | 19% | 12% | 11% | 5% |
| 9 | Richie Saunders | 5.65 | 51% | 19% | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| 10 | Darius Acuff Jr. | 5.65 | 51% | 20% | 13% | 12% | 4% |
| 11 | Nate Ament | 5.61 | 54% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 4% |
| 12 | Braden Smith | 5.58 | 50% | 17% | 18% | 13% | 2% |
| 13 | Henri Veesaar | 5.40 | 41% | 30% | — | — | 2% |
| 14 | AJ Dybantsa | 5.37 | 45% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 6% |
| 15 | Tyler Tanner | 5.36 | 46% | 18% | — | — | 4% |
| 16 | Kylan Boswell | 5.35 | 38% | 38% | — | — | 4% |
| 17 | Zuby Ejiofor | 5.26 | 42% | 22% | — | — | 3% |
| 18 | Joshua Jefferson | 5.24 | 46% | 15% | 21% | 13% | 6% |
| 19 | Koa Peat | 5.21 | 45% | 16% | — | — | 6% |
| 20 | Kingston Flemings | 5.15 | 44% | 14% | — | — | 6% |
Seven Calls We'd Defend Tonight
tonight's edge · with career-outcome receiptsP(star) is the model's calibrated probability the player ends up an NBA star. P(starter) is the next tier down. Bust risk in parens.
- Cameron Boozer is a real top-3. Both model variants agree, consensus is already there — clean call, not the bold one. P(star) 60.7% · P(starter) 15.7% · bust 3.4% · our #2 · cons #1
- Sergio De Larrea is the biggest swing of the night. Liga ACB point guard whose playmaking translates better than any international guard we've measured. Closer to a Hayes / LaMelo tier than the consensus board has him. P(star) 27.1% · P(starter) 22.8% · bust 8.5% · our #50
- AJ Dybantsa is a fade — fully validated. Market has him #2 overall, we have him #14, and six independent angles in the model say the same thing. Not a single signal flickering. P(star) 45.3% · P(starter) 22.0% · bust 5.5% · our #14 · cons #2
- Even our own #1 gets an asterisk. Keaton Wagler tops the board but the advanced metrics don't back him — looks like a shooting-volume artifact. Discount him as you read the board. P(star) 64.8% · P(starter) 15.7% · bust 4.3% · our #1 · cons #6 · âš ADV_WARNING
- Three gems consensus is sleeping on by 15-30 picks. Braden Smith, Richie Saunders, Joshua Jefferson. The model loves all three; the room doesn't. Smith P(star) 50.0% · our #12 · cons #32 | Saunders P(star) 51.1% · our #9 · cons #48 | Jefferson P(star) 45.7% · our #18 · cons #46
- Two first-round profiles buried in the second. Baba Miller and Hannes Steinbach. Even our headline model is undershooting them — the deeper advanced stats find a first-rounder where the headline model doesn't. Miller P(star) 32.4% · P(starter) 30.8% · our #29 | Steinbach P(star) 25.4% · P(rotation) 33.3% · our #44
- Three biggest fades on highly-touted names. Caleb Wilson, Aday Mara, Darryn Peterson. When the gap between consensus and us is this wide, we're saying the room is wrong. Wilson P(star) 26.0% · our #52 · cons #3 | Mara P(star) 12.9% · our #63 · cons #10 | Peterson P(star) 44.1% · bust 12.3% · our #28 · cons #4
Pick Value Chart
smoothed historicalHistorical per-pick value across the 2010-2021 retrospective. Smoothed across adjacent picks to reduce single-cohort noise.
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Class Strength Index
per-yearPer-class quality vs cross-cohort baseline. Star rate, starter-plus rate, average NBA seasons (anchor at 5).
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