nba methodology
The NBA Fantasy Math
We project the box score, not a fantasy score: every stat, every game, and how far each one tends to swing. Whatever your league counts, it can be built from that.
Fantasy basketball is won on two things: how much a player produces when he plays, and how many games he plays in your week. The player projections handle the first — minutes, per-minute production, injuries and the opponent. The schedule handles the second: which teams play four times this week, which play on the quiet nights when your bench is empty, and which are on a back-to-back. Put the two together and you know who to start, who to stream and who to hold.
engine
A box score with a range
Every player gets a projected line for points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, threes, and makes and attempts from the field and the line — and, for each, how much it typically moves from one game to the next. That spread is measured, not assumed: a stat's game-to-game swing grows with its size, faster for some stats than others, and the spread carries that shape. A 25-point scorer can be relied on for a big night more than a 6-point bench player can, but neither is a lock; the spread says how much of each week is the player and how much is the dice.
key levers
What controls the projection
Games this week
The schedule's week grid counts each team's games from Monday to Sunday, Eastern time — the week most fantasy leagues lock on. Four games beat three for a counting stat every time, so a solid player on a four-game week can be worth more than a better one on a two-game week.
Light nights
A light night is any day with seven or fewer games across the league. Those are the nights when most fantasy rosters have empty slots, so a team that plays on them gives you games you'd otherwise lose. The grid counts each team's light-night games, which is the number to sort by when you're streaming.
Back-to-backs and next week
The grid marks a team that played the day before, counted across the week boundary, because stars sit and minutes thin on the second night. It also shows next week's game count, so you can pick up a player a few days early for the week that matters.
Tonight's line
The line for a game tonight is the player projection at its most current: this season's numbers blended with the preseason forecast at the pace each stat earns, minutes moved from any teammate ruled out on the latest injury report, and points, rebounds, assists and threes adjusted for the opponent's defense and pace. The next five games are built the same way. The player methodology page explains each step.
The matchup box
Every game page projects both rotations as a box score — minutes, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, and makes and attempts — with players ruled out listed apart. It's the quickest way to see which side of a game your players are on, and who picks up the minutes when someone sits.
faq
Common questions
Why isn't there a fantasy points column?
Because leagues score differently — points leagues, nine categories, ten with turnovers or assist-to-turnover — and a single fantasy number would be right for some and wrong for most. The box-score line is the part that doesn't change between leagues. Apply your league's scoring to it and you have your number.
Why per game rather than season totals?
Per game is what you start and sit on. Season totals mix how good a player is with how many games he'll play, and the second part is better read off the schedule week by week — a player's value in your league changes with his team's calendar.
How should I use light nights?
When you're streaming, sort the week grid by light-night games. A player on a team with two light-night games this week fills two slots that would otherwise sit empty, and that's often worth more than a slightly better player whose games all land on full nights.
What does a player's percentile mean for fantasy?
It's his place among the regulars — everyone we project for 20 or more minutes a night — on each stat. It's a quick way to see what a player brings to a category league: a high percentile on threes and a low one on rebounds tells you exactly where he helps and where he costs you.
How current is a player's line on draft day or trade day?
Lines lean on this season more every game, the injury layer runs every ten minutes, and box scores come in twice a day. A line from this morning already knows about last night; a player ruled out an hour ago has already had his minutes handed out.
apex framework
For the platform-wide methodology framework — pre-registration policy, data philosophy, bias controls, and honesty notes — see the apex methodology page.